Policy Analysis & Commentary
Peace and Development – Do Megatrends Matter?
Drawing on data from 18 African countries between 2000 and 2020, this article examines the relationship between four major megatrends—demographic change, urbanisation, climate change and digital transformation—and peace and development. It identifies statistically significant positive associations between these megatrends and conflict, highlighting their complex and interconnected implications for African societies. The authors argue that peace and security considerations must be integrated into development planning through coordinated policy responses, stronger institutions and improved analytical capabilities. They recommend addressing underlying conflict drivers, aligning short- and long-term interventions, and strengthening data collection, forecasting and institutional collaboration.